In October this year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered South Africa’s economic growth forecasts, with the economy expected to expand 0.8 percent, down from a forecast of 1.5 percent in July.
In 2016, with South Africa was facing similar economic prospects (the IMF projected growth for South Africa was 0.1%), economist and now president Cyril Ramaphosa’s economic advisor, Trudi Makhaya offered advice for entrepreneurs to survive a zero growth economy.
Below are some pointers from Makhaya to keep in mind:
In tough economic times, it might seem like a good idea to give customers aggressive discounts to maintain market share. Yet, this can be a difficult strategy to reverse once conditions change.
The underlying cost base of the business may also not be able to support such a strategy beyond the short term, especially in an environment where inflation is not low. Rather, businesses should find ways to defend their price points and margins by offering added value.
Though it is difficult to commit to significant capital investment and innovation during a down-turn, businesses that do not maintain and improve their operations will miss out on the early stages of the recovery.
As mentioned above, cost-cutting initiatives and capital investment decisions should be taken with a long term horizon in mind. This is not an easy thing to do given that the economy has not recovered to the buoyancy witnessed before the great recession in 2008. However, technological developments, changing consumer preferences and heightened competition mean that business decisions have to take into account not just short-term survival but also growth in the medium and the long term.
As some level of cost-cutting will be inevitable during tough economic times, it is important that it’s informed by careful analysis. This is to ensure that business performance, especially relative to competitors, does not deteriorate.
Cost-cutting should, as much as possible, not compromise customer service and should not be done in a way that attracts reputational harm for the business, such as through cutting down on health and safety practices.
South African business subsidiaries in the rest of the continent have shown higher profitability than subsidiaries in SA or other parts of the world. However, profitability is falling across the board, including in the rest of the continent, as recent data from the International Monetary Fund has shown.
In growing sales across the continent, businesses should be mindful whether their main markets are countries that are exposed to the low oil price, falling commodity prices and weakening macro-economics. Nonetheless, the growth rate in most major African economies is higher than that of South Africa, though margins may be under pressure.